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Thursday, August 12, 2010

Who "The King" is voting for, and my Predictions

U.S. Senate:

I'm voting for Rob Simmons, but it would be a miracle for him to win given that he re-entered the race way too late. Moreover, money-bags McMahon has been both visible and has spent a ton on commercials and mailers. In truth, Simmons didn’t need $16 million to beat McMahon - he just had to stay in the race and make his case. Simmons’ decision to bail out was a bad one. Now its too little, too late. Peter Schiff on the other hand, had ample time and resources to make his case, but instead he just campaigned in his home district, and in a few rich towns. He will get 15% maximum and that's all he really deserves. My advice to him is - next time, hire professional campaign staff, and keep your family out of it. Fact is that Peter's volunteers worked harder than he did.
Predicted Winner: Linda McMahon by a landslide.

Connecticut 2nd Congressional:

I'm voting for Daria Novak. She's worked like a madwoman, campaigning in every nook and cranny of the district. She never rested, stopped, or broke. Her campaign has been 90% positive. Most of campaigning came in the form of grassroots support and visibility at area events. But her campaign needs a major facelift to be successful in the general election, else she will be crushed by the Courtney machine. Doug Dubitsky is a nice guy but he lacks the team to bring him over the line. I think he will do ok but I expect Daria to win. Janet Peckinpaugh isn’t resonating with the public. Her best hope is that she slips in between Novak and Dubitsky. Peckinpaugh’s problem is that she’s Janet Peckinpaugh - a late entry, poor communicator, and comes across dimwitted in most public appearances. She is also a liberal media personality who has had controversial behavior at the television stations she’s worked for. Given the three choices, Republicans aught to pray that Peckinpaugh does not win the primary on August 10th, the results for the GOP in the general election would be embarrassing.
Predicted Winner: Daria Novak, but the race will be closer than expected.

Attorney General:

I’m voting for Martha Dean. She’s a consistent campaigner and solid on the issues. Republicans know her for her spunk and conservative principles. She’s sharp as a tack and knows the law better than anyone in the field past or present. Ross Garber has run a 100% negative campaign. He’s perceived as a clown in most circles and not worth five minutes of consideration.
Predicted Winner: Martha Dean by a landslide

Governor’s Race:

I’m voting for Michael Fedele. I can’t say that I’m excited about this race at all because we just don’t have folks with the “matter of fact” personality and delivery of Governor Jodi Rell. Rell was the perfect Connecticut candidate – no nonsense, and couldn’t be dragged down into scandal – no matter how hard the Hartford Courant tried to make her out to be John Rowland. On the downside, she didn’t battle Democrats and appeared to be a lot like a rubber stamp to their whims, and that is part of why we are in the trouble we are in. Initially, I was leaning toward Tom Foley. He seemed to have solid command for a period but didn’t come across well in the debates. At the end of the day, he’s just another millionaire from South West of Hartford. I met both candidates and talked with them – Foley was less energetic in person than Fedele. Fedele has more humble background and is far more appealing to voters. I think the Governor’s race is mess to start with, and it’s anyone’s game – a Foley win helps Democrats in a State that has been downsized to death by Corporations and CEOs (like Foley). In a good economy, Foley might have been a better choice. Oz Griebel wants tolls in Connecticut. Enough said – that’s the last thing Connecticut needs – which is why he’s down with Peter Schiff (US Sen Cand) at 15%. No resonation. No tolls, No Oz. At the end of the day, Foley kept a commanding lead; I am having a hard time seeing that totally disintegrate on August 10th.
Predicted Winner: Toss Up; Tom Foley by a hair

Lt. Governor’s Race:

I’m voting for Mark Boughton. I think a lot will have to do with Boughton’s last minute appeal and how well Mike Fedele does. I’m not a big fan of Lisa Wilson-Foley. And its not just because she uses a hyphenated name. Early she started endorsing and cross endorsing candidates which I found distasteful. Also, although her background is interesting, I just don’t see her qualified to run for Lt. Governor without more political experience and service. Boughton has been a successful mayor of Danbury, Connecticut, and has done a great job in a tough city. He would be a huge asset to either Foley or Fedele from a political point of view. Connecticut has shown that its not necessarily favorable to business candidates, so it will be interesting if Wilson-Foley’s feminine qualities resonate with Connecticut constituents at a higher octave then her business background. I met Mark Boughton and liked him.
Predicted Winner: Mark Boughton by a hair.

Thoughts on the Unopposed:

State Treasurer:

I’m glad that Jeff Wright got out of the Governor’s race and decided to run for State Treasurer. Jeff is capable and ready. God willing he will make a huge case against Denise Nappier and beat out one of the biggest spenders in Connecticut History.

Secretary of State

Jerry Farrell is running unopposed. He comes across as a bit odd, in person. But we'll see where it goes. I'll most likely vote for him unless he loses his mind at the podium.

Connecticut Congressional District 1:

If I lived in District 1, I’d vote for Anne Brickley .

I don’t have any opinion on candidates in Districts 4 and 5 at this time (I will update if I do). But they have their hands full with the incumbent’s seated on the Democrat side.

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