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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Q-Poll Reality Check

The King's Message: What goes up must come down.
Not to burst anyone's bubble, but Linda McMahon's surrogates have been out and about spreading their propaganda all over the web trying to sell today's Quinnipiac Poll as some Earth-shaking achievement worth getting all hyped-up about.  Well, the truth is that it's not all that.  Really.  I mean to start - you have to admit that you get what you pay for. And Linda McMahon has laid-out a bundle of cash to just about anyone who can cash a check to improve her standing - at least against Christopher Shays, that is.

The King never liked the idea that Christopher Shays put so much stock in the March 22 Q-Poll, and made it the centerpiece of his campaign.  I strongly believed that no matter what happened - crisis, crime, or calamity that the poll would shift away from where it once stood as it always does.  Don't forget that just a few days before the November 2010 U.S. Senate election that similar polls had Linda McMahon down by only two points to Richard Blumenthal, yet the results of the real poll - the election - had Richard Blumenthal defeating Linda by 12 points.  Similar polls also had Republicans winning in Congressional Districts 4 and 5, and we all know how that turned out.

I'm not taking issue with the science of the polls, or authenticity of the results, I'm just saying that these polls are nothing more than a snapshot in time, and mean little else.  Campaigns should be based on issues, and of course - scandals, but not polls. Heck, it's human nature to want to see  a hypocritical public official or candidate slow roast on a spindle over the media's raging fire pitIt's what we all live for.  So, if you live by the sword, you tend to die by the sword, and at least today - Chris Shays is having a heaping helping of humble pie.  Perhaps now he can get back to serious campaigning and stop sending out emails containing cryptic messages involving hexagons and long arrows. None of which is at all inspiring.

If you're Linda's camp you have a few things to be cheerful about from the latest Q-Poll.  First, she's no longer losing to Susan Bysiewicz who we can all agree is pretty much done-done at this point (she's down against all opponents except perhaps our absolutely, unequivocally, unapologetically conservative American Peter the Lumaj).  The futility of her campaign is to the point where she is just taking up space in the parking lot feeding the pigeons.  

This is a stark contrast to Christopher Shays' campaign, since he can at least claim to have split the Connecticut Political Establishment and garnered support of influential Republicans like State Sen. Minority Leader John McKinney and Republican House Minority Leader Larry Cafero to start, and has enough pull to have Republican establishment types like U.S. Senator John McCain, and Karl Rove fly in to fan the flames on his behalf.  These people seem to be doing more for him than he's doing for himself at this point.  So I hope he appreciates all the political capital being blown by people with a lot to lose to prop him up at this stage in the game.

The second thing that Linda can boast about is the kink in the armour of Shays' electability (careful now, re-read that line); he is no longer within the margin of error of defeating Chris Murphy.  Murphy's new lead 45 - 37 kills Shays' claim to be in hot pursuit and able to overcome the margin over time.  Whatever Shays had in March is gone, perhaps it was never there - who knows.

Now for the bad news.

Despite having spent millions on her campaign so far, Linda still loses to the Democrat front runner Chris Murphy.  Now, Joe Markley is running around telling everyone that the narrowing of the gap somehow eliminates the cause for alarm around Linda McMahon's electability - but you know Joe, trying to save face, and working as Linda's political hack, and perhaps he was on another planet in 2010 and his UFO just got back or something.  By now, everyone knows you can't take Joe Markley seriously as he sort of roams from issue to issue, and microphone to microphone so he can hear himself talk.  And of all the people in our ranks, he gets it all wrong about 99% of the time.  The one thing you can guarantee about Shoeless Joe is that if he's standing in line at the OTB window and is placing a bet on a horse, you're guaranteed that whatever horse Joe picks will come in dead last.  So just remember that if you have your racing form about you, and want to start your pick through the process of elimination.  See Joe. OK?

But the big issue for Linda McMahon that dooms her campaign is that the gender gap continues to show her getting crushed by women in a head-to-head match-up against Chris Murphy by a nasty margin of 47% to 38%.   If 38% of the woman in the state can't see you as their Senator despite all the Tupperware parties and naughty-nighty shows she's been throwing in homes across the state, then she doesn't have a prayer in the world.  Case in point aside from gender, Linda McMahon has a total unfavorable rating of 38% versus Chris Shays' 16%.  And to make matters worse, where she would need to bring over some votes from the Democratic side to win, she has a 61% unfavorable rating.  That's a hard number to overcome, and keep in mind that people tend to come out to vote against someone more so than for someone.  That's just the cynical nature of the human spirit, I suppose.  Even the Q-Poll doesn't give Linda a break and refers to her as "Former Wrestling Executive" - not businesswoman, not jobs creator, not stay-at-home mom -  but Wrestling Executive.  You almost can't go any lower than that.

So what does it all mean?

Well, clearly it means that if Christopher Shays ever hopes to make a real go of his campaign, he'd better get started tomorrow.  It's clear to everyone that unless he steps up his game and starts getting more name recognition beyond his little crevice in Connecticut, he doesn't stand a chance in Hades.   Now, if he doesn't have the money, or has no means of raising it, then he's pretty much on the road to Susan Bysiewicz-land from which there is no return.  

So if Vince Lombardi were still alive and he called a meeting of the Shays Campaign Team he might start by firing or making a few substitutions in a few key slots (I'm not going to get into particulars but people can figure out who's faking it for eight hours a day and who isn't).  Because whoever is calling the shots at Shays Headquarters is dropping the ball on the yard of scrimmage before it passes out of the center's hands. 

Christopher Shays is right to criticize Linda where it matters - on policy, and on experience.   The Pro-Wrestling attacks are left for people like me who think her whole operation aught to pack up it's act and move out to sea where it belongs.  The people who hate Linda for her filthy industry aren't going to hold their noses and vote for her in August or November - you can let that be.  She's lost those voters already, and they would eventually bring any campaign that she might continue post-August to an eventual losing position.

Meanwhile, Christopher Shays needs to get his own message out there.  Instead of reporting the news, its time that he start to make some.  Not through arrows and hexagons or emails, but through commercials and televised public appearances.  If he's not willing to do that, he can quit today and save himself the humiliation.  He can't focus on November if he hasn't a plan to get past August.  And the plan he has now - well, it sucks.  Hoping for the best is much different than getting out there and broadcasting your message to the voters.

How about television, television, television, and television.  And by the way, did I mention television?  Just think, even though Linda is annoying as hell with her phony life story (which we still can't tell what's what or how she managed to claim bankruptcy then turn around a few months later and a put a down payment on the Stoner Mansion backlot), she was able to improve her overall miserable rankings among voters.  If you can take a airhead like her devoid of positions, and experience - then anyone can boast their brand and marketing. 

One more tidbit from the Q-Poll, it seems somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% of the public statewide claims to not have enough information to form an opinion about Chris Shays and Chris Murphy.  This important piece of information tells you that when Murphy (who has plenty of money stashed) decides to hit the airwaves his numbers will eclipse the field in name recognition (remember, Linda already has a 95% name recognition rating so there is nowhere for her to really go), and Chris Shays would benefit exponentially if he were to get his act together and begin a public relations campaign to let Republicans know Linda McMahon even has an opponent. 

Newsflash, Mr. Shays:  You're better off saving your money by firing your staff, hooking up an answering machine, and running quality commercials on Fox News syndication up though August 14th.  You'd see a huge jump in the next poll, and become a factor in the race.

Like most of the advice that has been offered, I'm sure it will all fall on deaf ears and blind eyes.  But there is always hope at least from this poor taxpayer that the die isn't already cast and we will have a nominee worth supporting come November.  It's that or while America cheers the removal of Barack Obama around the Country, Connecticut Republicans will be left to sulk in shame based on mistakes that could have easily been avoided.



This original blog entry can be found at

Disclaimer: This entry and others will be modified/updated at a future date. All entries are for the sole purpose of entertainment. This article does not imply endorsement of the candidate mentioned above, nor has this article been solicited for publication by any political candidate, campaign, or PAC


Anonymous said...

In the words of Chris Christie, shut up and write a check. Those things cost money Shays doesn't have.

The King said...

Well if that's the case, he'd better get a paper route. Money rolls in when your moving up, not down.

Thomas Moore said...

Various disconnected rants - Money can't buy Linda what she needs (likeability which Shays posses). Linda is on budget to buy two CT Democrat U S Senate seats with her money. Think about it, she bought the seat for Blummy and is now buying Murphy one. Actually Daria Novak is more qualified to be our U S Senator than Linda is and that fact is scary because Daria has an obsessive personality regarding her seemed entitlement (in other words she's fucking CRAZY) to be a congresswoman. Daria as with Linda have never served any office at any level of Government,both have taken on the media and lost, both say similar stupid and redundant empty slogans and both hate career politicians but not career candidates such as themselves.They say Polls don't lie, Politicians do but when Shays was up in the previous Q poll 38 percent of people needed to know more about him before they could offer an opinion of him, the latest Q poll has that number climbing to 40 percent. So what should we gather from this number, do more people not know him or his stance than since the last poll? Numbers are a funny thing but one things for sure as with Donovans Teacher Union support mobilizing this week for him in the face of corruption Murphy will enjoy that support and more come November. What Republicans need to do which is to say what Linda and Chris Shays should do NOW is run against Malloy and the State Democrat Party. Blame Malloy and Donovan and not Obama is the key here. CT voters are confused and stupid enough to make that connection but are the Republican candidates for Congress and U S Senate smart enough to do it? And for the record what the hardline, walk on water, born again, bible touting, constitution hoarding,gay bashing,family promoting folks need to do is get on board with Roraback and Shays if they want a win or two, but you know, these types get their funding from there being a boogyman, the last thing they really want is a political cure for what they protest because then they will be out of work. Newsflash St Peter, your failure to compromise is not divine, its just another form of co- oped entitlement, stop being a media whore and make a real difference by settling to move the needle a little your way. You know what the bible says about greed!

Winston Churchill said...

To Thomas Moore - you make some valid points especially regarding the religious right. Remember as in politics Christianity is really an event not a religion or institution, in fact the bureacracies actually hinder the events. As for the CTGOP they are playing to an empty stadium here in CT. The best they can do is not run anyone for any Federal Office, its a waste of money, time, space and eats into the attention lower state level candidates could be getting. Lastly I believe four more years of Obama and two more years of Malloy are just what taxpayers in CT need to wake up and take a look at the Republican Brand. Now if Chairman Labriola can just get us off life support ( Greenwich donors) and living on donations from the 400,000 Registered Republicans then we can become truly the Grand Old Party not the " A Grand buys the Party Party"

Joe Visconti said...

FYI for all the political junkies out there Linda McMahon will run for Governor in 2014 after losing this year. With her name recognition, cash and time to do nothing else combined with her political ambition and vanity why wouldn't she? This brings up something for Tom Foley to address, hey Tom can you get Linda to announce she won't run for Governor after she loses this Senate bid? So "The Curse of Linda McMahon" will haunt the CTGOP forever.Now you all know why so many supported her this go around, Linda is welcome here in the CTGOP as long as the checks keep coming to RTC's and money gets legally laundered to bypass FEC/public scrutiny to insiders (That gets harder under State law in a Governor run) . One question is who will run her 2014 Senate campaign? Her Political Operative burn rate is the highest in the nation having just toasted Tom Scott. Oh and to Thomas Moore, I like some of your ideas (sound a lot like the Kings though) except your Saint Peter remarks. Some people know what they believe in and don't get swayed by expediancy.